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Showing posts from March, 2025

Türkiye and Russia: Strategic Allies or Unavoidable Rivals?

  by Derya Introduction Defeated by Catherine the Second during the Russo-Ottoman War (1769-1774), which culminated in the signing of the Küçük Kaynarca Treaty, the Ottoman Empire saw Crimea fall into Russian hands. The treaty granted Russia access to the Black Sea through Crimea, while Türkiye retained its command over the Mediterranean. Yet, centuries later, the delicate balance between these two powers remains fraught with contradictions. After the Bolshevik Revolution and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the newly formed Republic of Türkiye pursued a "good neighbor" policy with Russia. But how long could such a stance endure when just last week, President Erdoğan openly declared that he does not recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea? Türkiye’s geopolitical maneuvering has long been marked by strategic ambiguity. A NATO member since 1952, it has often tested the limits of the alliance, as seen in its controversial purchase of Russian S-400 missiles in 2019, despite ...

Causes, reactions and consequences of the ceasefire between the PKK and Türkiye

by Marin Aslan On Thursday, February 27, 2025, after 26 years in prison, Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), officially called on the group to disband and lay down its arms. Causes The reasons behind Öcalan’s call for a ceasefire may be multiple. He may believe that the fight against the political regime should not rely on military attacks but should instead be pursued through political means. Additionally, he might seek to distance himself from the label of a terrorist leader and instead be seen as a defender of peace for his people, adapting to current realities to promote reconciliation. For the Turkish president, it may be a strategic move to amend the constitution, enabling him to stand for a re-election. Indeed, he needed the opposition's support, particularly from the Peoples’ Emancipation and Democracy Party (DEM party), to change it. And a constitutional change can only be submitted to a referendum if it receives the support of 360 member...