by Martin Aslan In the volatile geopolitics of March 2026, Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains the region's most destabilizing force—master of loud moral outrage and quiet strategic opportunism. The Azerbaijan-Israel axis perfectly exposes Ankara's hypocrisy. Azerbaijan supplies Israel with roughly 46% of its crude oil imports, flowing through Turkey's Ceyhan port via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. In return, Israeli drones and advanced weaponry helped Baku decisively defeat Armenia in recent conflicts. This partnership directly counters Iran, providing Israel intelligence access near Tehran's borders and stoking fears of unrest among Iran's large ethnic Azeri population. Turkey vociferously backs Azerbaijan as “one nation, two states,” supplying political cover and military aid. Simultaneously, Erdoğan unleashes blistering anti-Israel rhetoric—especially over Gaza—imposing partial trade bans to rally domestic and Islamic support. Yet reality betrays the bl...
by Martin Aslan Both Erdoğan’s government and the Iranian regime perceive the Kurds as a threat. Estimates place their population between 7 and 15 million in Iran, Iranian Kurds—known as Rojhelati or Eastern Kurds—have faced ongoing discrimination, including restrictions on Kurdish language education, cultural expression, and political organizing. On February 22, 2026, five major Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK) to coordinate efforts against the Islamic Republic. A sixth group, the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, joined on March 4. The coalition includes: Such political coordination among Iranian Kurdish movements is likely to be closely watched in Ankara, where Kurdish political and territorial developments beyond Türkiye’s borders are viewed through a national security lens. If Iranian Kurdish parties were to gain territorial control in Iranian Kurdistan, it would likely heighten concerns in Ankara. Türkiye ha...