Moscow’s Final Stand in Yerevan: Armenia’s Vote That Trigger Russia

by Martin Aslan

Democracy is deeply rooted in Armenia and has a long history. The current Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, was one of the key architects of a political shift towards the West and the search for new partners, driven in particular by a desire to break free from Russia, which has historically tried to maintain a strong influence since 1991.

Russia has lost its grip on the South Caucasus in recent years. Whilst Azerbaijan is increasingly proving to be a rival to Russia and Georgia has been caught up in a pro-European momentum for several years, Armenia constituted Moscow’s last foothold in what was considered its own backyard.

Russia senses the tide turning and fears the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections to be held on 7 June. Whilst Armenia is already facing disinformation campaigns, and political and economic pressure from Russia, which is seeking to sway Armenian public opinion in favor of pro-Russian candidates, the polls indicate that the incumbent Prime Minister remains in the lead with nearly two-thirds of the vote. Indeed, recent polls show Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party leading with roughly 30% overall support (rising to as high as 65% among decided voters).

It is therefore to be feared that, depending on the outcome of the election, Russia may seek a flimsy pretext to intervene directly in Armenia and sow discord in the country, as it did in Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine in 2014.

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